Indian stock market news 12/05/2025

 

On Monday, May 12, 2025, the Indian stock market experienced its most significant single-day rally in four years, driven by positive geopolitical and global trade developments.

📈 Market Performance

• BSE Sensex: Surged by 2,975.43 points (3.74%) to close at 82,429.90.

• Nifty 50: Gained 916.70 points (3.82%) to settle at 24,924.70.

• Market Capitalization: BSE-listed companies added approximately ₹16.15 lakh crore in market value, bringing the total to ₹432.56 trillion.
  

🔑 Key Drivers of the Rally

1. India-Pakistan Ceasefire: The announcement of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan over the weekend alleviated geopolitical tensions, boosting investor confidence.
   

2. US-China Trade Agreement: Progress in US-China trade talks, including agreements to ease tariffs, improved global market sentiment. 

3. Broad-Based Sector Gains: All sectoral indices closed in the green, with notable performances in:

   • IT: Nifty IT index rose by 6.7%.

   • Realty: Increased by 5.9%.

   • Midcap and Smallcap: BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices gained 3.85% and 4.18%, respectively. 

📊 Top Gainers and Losers

• Gainers:

  • Infosys: Up 7.6%.

  • HCL Technologies: Gained 5.9%.

  • Tata Steel: Rose by 5.6%.

  • TCS: Increased by 5.4%.

• Losers:

  • Sun Pharmaceutical: Experienced a decline, partly due to concerns over potential U.S. drug price regulations.
    

📉 Volatility Index

• India VIX: The volatility index dropped by 14.6% to 18.47, indicating reduced market uncertainty. 

🏦 Market Operations on Buddha Purnima

Despite Buddha Purnima being a gazetted holiday, the Indian stock markets remained open on May 12, 2025.

This rally marks a significant rebound for the Indian stock market, reflecting renewed investor optimism amid easing geopolitical tensions and positive global trade developments.

Indian stock market news on 09/05/2025

 

On May 9, 2025, Indian stock markets experienced significant declines due to escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. The BSE Sensex dropped by 880.34 points (1.10%) to close at 79,454.47, while the NSE Nifty 50 fell by 265.80 points (1.10%) to end at 24,008.00.

This downturn resulted in a loss of approximately $83 billion in market capitalization over two trading sessions. 

Sectoral Performance:

• Defence stocks saw gains, with the Nifty Defence index rising by 3.04%, as investors anticipated increased government spending in this sector. 

• Real estate and banking sectors were among the worst performers; the Nifty Realty index declined by 2.38%, and ICICI Bank's shares fell by 3.16%. 

• Midcap and smallcap indices also faced losses, with the Nifty Midcap 150 closing 0.02% higher and the Nifty Smallcap 250 down by 0.66%. 

Notable Stock Movements:

• Titan Company bucked the trend, gaining 4.38% amid the broader market decline.

• Infosys shares decreased by 0.25%, underperforming some of its peers.
  

The market downturn was primarily driven by heightened geopolitical risks, including reports of missile attacks and military escalations along the India-Pakistan border.

How to increase your chances of IPO allotment

 

Increasing your chances of getting an IPO allotment in India involves understanding the allotment process and following some key strategies. Here are some tips:

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1. Apply Through Multiple Demat Accounts

• Open multiple accounts: You can apply through the Demat accounts of family members (spouse, parents, siblings, etc.).
• One application per PAN: Ensure each application is linked to a different PAN, as multiple applications with the same PAN will be rejected.

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2. Bid for the Minimum Lot Size

• Retail quota: IPO allotments are done randomly within the retail investor quota, and every applicant who bids for the minimum lot size has an equal chance.
• Avoid higher bids: Bidding for more lots doesn’t guarantee allotment, as retail investors are allotted on a pro-rata basis if the IPO is oversubscribed.

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3. Apply in the Retail Investor Category

• Eligibility: If your investment amount is up to ₹2 lakhs, you can apply under the retail investor category, which has a specific quota.
• HNI (High Net-worth Individual) category: If you plan to invest more than ₹2 lakhs, you fall under the HNI category, which often has lower odds due to high oversubscription.

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4. Use UPI or ASBA for a Smooth Process

• ASBA (Applications Supported by Blocked Amount): Ensure you apply through ASBA via your bank or broker, as it blocks your funds rather than debiting them.
• UPI Mandate: If applying online, approve the UPI mandate quickly to ensure your application is processed.

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5. Choose the Right IPOs

• Oversubscription analysis: Look for IPOs with moderate oversubscription. Extremely oversubscribed IPOs may reduce your chances of allotment.
• Strong fundamentals: Focus on IPOs with strong fundamentals and demand in the market.

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6. Avoid Technical Rejections

• Double-check details: Ensure your PAN, Demat account number, and bank details are correctly entered.
• Sufficient funds: Ensure your account has sufficient funds to block the application amount.

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7. Apply Early

• Timing: Submit your IPO application on the first or second day of the issue period to avoid last-minute glitches.

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8. Apply Through Multiple Brokers

• Different intermediaries: Apply using different brokers or trading platforms to increase your chances, as technical rejections on one platform won’t affect other applications.

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9. Participate in Small & Mid-sized IPOs

• Higher chances: Smaller IPOs might have lower participation, increasing your chances of getting an allotment compared to large and popular ones.

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10. Check Grey Market Premium (GMP)

• Market sentiment: Look for IPOs with a moderate GMP. While high GMP IPOs attract more retail investors, they often result in oversubscription and lower allotment chances.

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By following these strategies, you can improve your odds, though it's essential to remember that IPO allotments are partly luck-based when demand is high.

Summary of "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham

 

Concise summary of "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham, often considered the bible of value investing:

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Key Themes:

1. Value Investing:
   The core principle is to invest in undervalued securities, which are priced lower than their intrinsic value. This approach minimizes risk and maximizes potential returns.

2. The Margin of Safety:
   Always leave room for error by buying investments at a significant discount to their estimated value. This acts as a buffer against uncertainties.

3. Mr. Market Analogy:
   Graham personifies the stock market as "Mr. Market," a moody character who offers you prices that might be irrationally high or low. Your job is to make rational decisions without getting influenced by his emotions.

4. Types of Investors:

   • Defensive Investor: Focuses on a passive, low-risk approach, prioritizing capital preservation. Prefers diversified portfolios and blue-chip stocks.
   • Enterprising Investor: Willing to take higher risks to achieve higher returns by researching and identifying undervalued stocks or market opportunities.

5. Investing vs. Speculating:
   Investors aim for steady, long-term returns based on analysis, while speculators chase quick profits and take on excessive risk.

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Key Concepts:

1. Intrinsic Value:
   The true value of a stock, based on fundamental analysis, such as earnings, dividends, and growth potential.

2. Market Fluctuations:
   Volatility is normal. A disciplined investor focuses on the intrinsic value rather than daily price changes.

3. Diversification:
   Spread investments across different asset classes or industries to reduce risk.

4. Dividend Policy:
   Companies with consistent dividend-paying records are a good sign of financial stability and shareholder focus.

5. Common Stock Selection:
   Look for strong financials, a track record of growth, and reasonable valuation metrics like low P/E (price-to-earnings) ratios.

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Practical Advice for Investors:

1. Defensive Investors:

   • Invest in low-cost index funds or ETFs.
   • Focus on well-established, dividend-paying companies.
   • Avoid frequent trading to minimize costs.

2. Enterprising Investors:

   • Conduct thorough research on individual stocks or bonds.
   • Look for overlooked or undervalued stocks.
   • Stay disciplined and avoid emotional decisions.

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Timeless Lessons:

• Patience is Key: Successful investing is a long-term game. Resist the urge to chase trends or time the market.
• Avoid Herd Mentality: Independent thinking is crucial. Don’t follow the crowd blindly.
• Risk Management: Never expose yourself to catastrophic losses.

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"The Intelligent Investor" emphasizes that success in investing comes not from luck or speculation but from rational analysis, discipline, and emotional control.

Why is the Indian stock market falling?

 

The Indian stock market is currently experiencing a decline due to a mix of domestic and global factors:

 

1. Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) Outflows: FPIs have been withdrawing funds for over a month, driven by concerns over high valuations in Indian equities. In November alone, they pulled out ₹22,306 crore​

   
   

2. Weak Global Cues: Global economic challenges, including poor corporate earnings in the U.S., a strong dollar, and concerns about geopolitical stability, are negatively impacting investor sentiment. This has led to a ripple effect on Indian markets​

   
   

3. Economic Policy Concerns: The Indian government's 2024 budget failed to meet market expectations, providing little to stimulate capital expenditure or boost corporate earnings, further affecting market confidence​

   
   

4. Sectoral and Stock-Specific Issues: Key sectors like public sector enterprises (PSEs), auto, and banking are facing sell-offs due to valuation concerns and weaker-than-expected earnings reports. Specific stocks such as Britannia and Bharat Electronics have seen sharp declines due to disappointing results​

   
   

5. Currency Weakness: The Indian rupee has hit a record low against the U.S. dollar, pressured by strong dollar demand and FPI withdrawals, which makes Indian assets less attractive​

   
   

These factors combined are causing the broader indices, such as Sensex and Nifty, to fall consistently. Investors may consider focusing on long-term fundamentals while staying cautious about near-term volatility.

Lamosaic India IPO analysis

 

The Lamosaic India IPO opened on November 21, 2024, and will close on November 26, 2024. It is priced at ₹200 per share with a minimum investment of 600 shares (₹120,000). The IPO aims to raise ₹61.20 crore through a fresh issue of shares, with no offer for sale component. It will list on the NSE Emerge platform, which is tailored for small and medium enterprises (SMEs)​

Key Details:

• Industry: Lamosaic India operates in the construction materials sector, focusing on products like laminates, plywood, and flush doors. The company primarily caters to real estate and infrastructure markets within Maharashtra. 
• Financial Performance: The company has shown significant growth, with revenue rising from ₹10.01 crore in FY22 to ₹55.65 crore in FY24. Net profit improved from ₹0.51 crore in FY22 to ₹8.22 crore in FY24​
• Return on Equity (RoE): It boasts an impressive RoE of 53.93% for FY24, reflecting strong profitability​

Strengths:

1. Specialized Market Niche: Focuses on decorative laminates and related products with a presence in the Maharashtra market.
2. Strong Financials: Consistent growth in revenue and profitability, with improving margins.

Risks:

1. High Valuation: With an FY24 Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of around 24, the IPO appears slightly expensive compared to peers in the SME segment.
2. Limited Market Reach: Its operations are largely confined to Maharashtra, which could restrict future growth opportunities​

If you are considering investing, the IPO's success will depend on its ability to scale operations and sustain profitability. For retail investors, the 50% allocation in this SME IPO and listing on NSE Emerge are notable aspects.

Fundamental analysis vs Technical analysis

 

 

 

Fundamental analysis and technical analysis are two distinct approaches to evaluating investments, particularly in the stock market. Here's a detailed comparison:

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1. Definition

• Fundamental Analysis:
  Focuses on evaluating the intrinsic value of a stock by analyzing a company’s financial health, business model, industry position, and economic environment.

• Technical Analysis:
  Focuses on price movements and trading volumes, using charts and patterns to predict future stock movements based on historical trends.

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2. Key Factors Analyzed

• Fundamental Analysis:

  • Financial Statements: Profit & loss statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement.
  • Ratios: P/E ratio, P/B ratio, ROE, ROCE, debt-to-equity ratio, etc.
  • Qualitative Factors: Management quality, competitive advantages, market trends, and economic indicators.

• Technical Analysis:

  • Price Charts: Line charts, candlestick charts, bar charts, etc.
  • Indicators: Moving averages, RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc.
  • Patterns: Head and shoulders, double tops/bottoms, triangles, etc.

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3. Time Horizon

• Fundamental Analysis:

  • Long-term focus.
  • Suitable for investors who want to hold stocks for years, based on the company’s growth potential.

• Technical Analysis:

  • Short-term focus.
  • Suitable for traders looking to profit from daily or weekly price movements.

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4. Data Sources

• Fundamental Analysis:

  • Annual reports, news about the company, economic data, and industry reports.

• Technical Analysis:

  • Stock price charts and trading volume data from exchanges.

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5. Tools Used

• Fundamental Analysis:

  • Tools like financial ratios, discounted cash flow (DCF) models, and economic analysis.

• Technical Analysis:

  • Charting platforms with built-in indicators and customizable tools like Fibonacci retracements or trend lines.

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6. Who Uses It?

• Fundamental Analysis:

  • Long-term investors, mutual funds, and value investors like Warren Buffett.

• Technical Analysis:

  • Day traders, swing traders, and short-term speculators.

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7. Philosophy

• Fundamental Analysis:
  Believes that the market may misprice a stock in the short term but that the true value will eventually be reflected.

• Technical Analysis:
  Believes that all market information is already reflected in stock prices and trends tend to repeat themselves.

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8. Strengths

• Fundamental Analysis:

  • Provides a deep understanding of the company.
  • Better for long-term wealth creation.

• Technical Analysis:

  • Useful for timing the market and identifying entry/exit points.
  • Works well in volatile markets.

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9. Weaknesses

• Fundamental Analysis:

  • Time-consuming and may not work well for short-term decisions.
  • Relies on assumptions about future growth.

• Technical Analysis:

  • Can give false signals.
  • Doesn’t consider the actual value or financial health of a company.

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Which Should You Use?

• If you’re a long-term investor: Focus on fundamental analysis to select solid companies with growth potential.
• If you’re a trader: Use technical analysis to capitalize on short-term price movements.

Many successful investors and traders combine both approaches for a well-rounded strategy.